More Delegate Math
Texas caucus results seem to have come in strongly for Obama, giving him a net gain of five delegates for Texas. This cuts Clinton’s March 4th gains to six delegates. Coincidentally, Obama gained seven delegates from Mississippi and Wyoming. This puts Clinton further behind than she was before she won Ohio and sort of won Texas.
Without Michigan and Florida in the mix, Clinton will need to win about two thirds of the remaining delegates. In other words, she’ll need to do on average, significantly better than she did in New York in all the rest of the contests. If she can’t carry North Carolina (and does anybody seriously think she’ll carry North Carolina?) she’ll need a margin like she had in Arkansas.
So she needs Michigan and Florida. If Florida and Michigan get thrown in the mix she would be in slightly better shape. Then she would need roughly 20% margins of victory. Perhaps if she did as well as she did in New York she could get close enough for her to work the superdelegate thing.
I think she’s at the time to exit gracefully stage. I won’t make the call for anybody else—but I think at this point a vote for Clinton is a vote for McCain. If this doesn’t end soon it’s going to leave the democrats in an awful mess going into the general election.
If you’re in Pennsylvania and are tempted to vote for Clinton spend a few minutes doing the math to see if you think Clinton still has any possible path to the White House. She would need to find a way to win the democratic nomination in a way that is not so acrimonious that it throws the election to the Republicans. I don’t see how she can do it. Let me know if you do.
Well said.
